Modeling Volatility in the Stock Markets using GARCH Models: European Emerging Economies and Turkey

Erginbay Ugurlu, Eleftherios Thalassinos, Yusuf Muratoglu
International Journal of Economics & Business Administration, Volume II, Issue 3, 72-87, 2014

Abstract:

This paper examines the use of GARCH-type models for modeling volatility of stock markets returns for four European emerging countries and Turkey. We use daily data from Bulgaria (SOFIX), Czech Republic (PX), Poland (WIG), Hungary (BUX) and Turkey (XU100) which are considered as emerging markets in finance. We find that GARCH, GJR-GARCH and EGARCH effects are apparent for returns of PX and BUX, WIG and XU whereas for SOFIX there is no significant GARCH effect. For both markets, we conclude that volatility shocks are quite persistent and the impact of old news on volatility is significant. Future research should examine the performance of multivariate time series models while using daily returns of international emerging markets.


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